. We're caught in a trap One difficulty in analyzing our economic future is the sheer number of potential crises. This week I have asked my longtime associate Patrick Watson to step in and write Thoughts from the Frontline, offering his perspective as a small business owner. I try to not let my politics intrude, except when politics affects our portfolios and the economy, which is actually rare. John Mauldin Founder of Mauldin Economics and world-famous writer, commentator, and economist. There is simply too much to cover in one letter, and today we’ll start with the most important factor, a known unknown, that I think will be the driver for 2021. Almost all banks are now interrelated. Eventually they’ll add up to serious danger. We haven’t had a lot of good news lately. Read Latest Edition Now This makes it hard to chart a personal and business path forward. John Mauldin's Thoughts From The Frontline is a highly acclaimed blog that's primarily focused on private money management, financial services, and investments. It’s not exactly “Quantitative Easing I, II, and III,” but it will have some of the same effects. And lots of phone calls, both to analysts and medical experts. There is simply too much to cover in one letter, and today we’ll start with the most important factor, a known unknown, that I think will be the driver for 2021. “There are decades when nothing happens, and weeks when decades happen,” says a quote usually attributed to Vladimir Lenin. "History repeats itself, that's one of the things that's wrong with history.”, —Clarence Darrow (1857-1938), American lawyer. John Mauldin's Thoughts from the Frontline Experience the legend—join one of the most widely read macroeconomic newsletters in the world. In other words, it creates devastating Black Swans. Though I suppose we don’t have to worry. Reviews, discussions, and comments about the newsletter John Mauldin's Thoughts from the Frontline. If you ever think you just can’t win, I know how you feel. “The belief that wealth subsists not in ideas, attitudes, moral codes, and mental disciplines but in identifiable and static things that can be seized and redistributed is the materialist superstition. Knowing internet connectivity would be scarce here, I asked good friend Larry Kotlikoff to be your guest writer this week. We are now in a situation where society’s upper echelon can easily stay safe and prosperous while the lower segments live precariously and dangerously. Until the Industrial Revolution, most people lived on subsistence agriculture, sustaining themselves with whatever they could produce or working as slaves/serfs. Follow John Mauldin as he uncovers the truth behind, and beyond, the financial headlines. I wrote that he was kinda, sorta wrong in Why and How Capitalism Needs to Be Reformed, Parts 1 and 2 but really, really wrong in It’s Time to Look More Carefully at ‘Monetary Policy 3 (MP3)’ and ‘Modern Monetary Theory,’ in which he basically endorsed MMT. This week is the fourth in a series of five open letters responding to a series of essays by Ray Dalio, the founder of Bridgewater Associates. Economics in Orbit The history of humanity, at least as taught in most schools, is really about two seemingly opposite forces: human innovation and human conflict. In baseball, there is a situation where a base runner is sprinting to home plate and can’t see what is happening behind him. &8212;G. Gilder. This will be the third part of my 2021 Forecast Series. The actions by the Federal Reserve have widened the gap. John has dedicated more than 30 years to keeping people informed about financial risk. You can read the first two parts here and here. I certainly am. Source: Mauldin Economics. Creating perceptions is often enough to modify people’s behavior. Or, more precisely, we haven’t seen a lot of good news lately, though it does exist. Everything is some combination of zeroes and ones. This highly acclaimed blog is primarily focused on private money management, financial services, and investments. One little-noted aspect of central bank policy is how rarely “policy” happens. This week’s letter is the first part of my 2021 forecast. Madmen in authority, who hear voices in the air, are distilling their frenzy from some academic scribbler of a few years back.”. It drew laughs on March 15, 2009, shortly after the Federal Reserve fired its heaviest artillery and, we now know, launched the longest bull market in history. Officials at the Federal Reserve and elsewhere long ago learned how to achieve their goals without actually doing anything. Thoughts From The Frontline - Investment Strategies, Analysis & Intelligence for Seasoned Investors. Thoughts from the Frontline. The machines can do marvelous things with those two digits but they have limits. When so much could go wrong (and really right, when the exponential technologies I foresee get here), it’s hard to isolate, let alone navigate, the real dangers. Any forecast for 2021 must first consider this decidedly “known unknown.”. I want to travel freely, enjoy dinner with friends, hug, and shake hands. Modern technology was supposed to make travel less necessary. But in fact it is remarkably difficult. Meanwhile, with trade disputes still roiling markets, below is a still-timely letter he wrote last year. I enjoy my work. Delivered weekly on Saturdays. Unprecedented events are happening so fast, I barely know where to start. Totally focused on scoring, he doesn’t know if the outfielder is throwing a ball that will reach home plate first. Coronavirus Is Not an Emergency. Odd, seemingly inconsistent events and decisions don’t bring the expected results. Soon they will begin actively easing by reinvesting the Fed’s maturing mortgage bonds into Treasury securities. The essential point to grasp is that in dealing with capitalism we are dealing with an evolutionary process… At the heart of capitalism is creative destruction. Thoughts from the Frontline Follow John Mauldin as he uncovers the truth behind, and beyond, the financial headlines. This seemingly simple question immediately generates emotional, political, and social anxiety. (JavaScript must be enabled to view this email address), Great Reset Update: $50 Trillion Debt Coming, On the Question of Current and Future Lockdowns, The Second Great Depression… But Not Really. This week’s letter is the first part of my 2021 forecast. But sometimes, we rise above it. Predictions are difficult, especially those about the future. It conforms in helping investors establish a better knowledge of the force that drives our global economy and investment markets. “History doesn't repeat itself, but it does rhyme.”. I knew fairly early, when Florida and North Carolina looked so close, we weren’t going to see a “blue wave.” But beyond that, it was clear the presidency would not be settled that night. Life would be so much easier if we didn’t have to worry about our financial futures. Some people worry about their investments. I try to not let my politics intrude, except when politics affects our portfolios and the economy, which is actually rare. The deceived batter swings too soon and misses. Business On The Frontline. We have a pretty good record of what that period was like. Experience the legend—join one of the most widely read macroeconomic newsletters in the world. Thoughts from the Frontline is an economic/investment newsletter. A note to our current Alpha Society members: January 19–22 is Member Appreciation Week here at Mauldin Economics—so mark your calendar and let us show how much we appreciate you! Amid all 2020’s new problems, it’s easy to overlook the old ones. I’m on the phone with John almost every day, trading information as we produce Thoughts from the Frontline and Over My Shoulder . Because I love you too much baby. There are these two young fish swimming along, and they happen to meet an older fish swimming the other way, who nods at them and says, “Morning, boys, how’s the water?” And the two young fish swim on for a bit, and then eventually one of them looks over at the other and goes, “What the hell is water?”. West Texas Judge Roy Bean reportedly said, “Nothing focuses the mind like a good hanging.” For the vulnerable and those of us of a certain age (ahem), this virus goes beyond the normal daily risks. Others are worried about their employment or their kids. I have a special treat for you. I write this introduction from an all-too-short vacation in Montana (more below). My recent letters described what I think the future will look like. An old joke says economists predicted 15 of the last 10 recessions. Thoughts from the Frontline: When Inequality Isn’t By John Mauldin “An imbalance between rich and poor is the oldest and most fatal ailment of all republics.” –Plutarch, Greek historian, first century AD “In the economic sphere an act, a habit, an institution, a law produces not only one effect, but a series of effects.… Mauldin Economics is a publishing company with the mission to attain today’s most pressing investment goals: to increase investment earnings, produce capital gains, or maintain wealth in tempestuous markets. Thoughts from the Frontline is a free weekly economic e-letter by best-selling author and renowned financial expert, John Mauldin. US coronavirus case growth appears to be slowing, albeit at a tragically high level. 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